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Final:

Hi

We are a group of Singaporean university students, currently in a
Digital Media course, working on a prediction market project. There
have been controversies about whether the prediction market works.
Thus we hope to run a prediction market simulation and assess the
findings.

The simulation will run for 30 days till November 1st hence we are on
a lookout of an event in Asia which will end by mid-November.

We have come up with a few topics and it would be great to get
feedback/comments to improve/add on our topics:

• US Elections (Who’s going to win, how many votes (%), do you think
the winner will tear?)
• On average, how many destinations (countries) has an average 22 year
old University student been to?

These are just a few ideas we are considering and would love to throw
around some more ideas here.

Best regards, Team Foreasia

Draft:

Hi We are a group of Singaporean university students, currently in a Digital Media course, working on a prediction market project. There have been controversies about whether the prediction market works. Thus we hope to run a prediction market simulation and assess the findings. The simulation will run for 30 days and it will end on November 1st so we are looking for an event that will happen in this period We have come up with the following topics and it would be great to get feedback/comments to improve on our topics:

• US Elections (Who’s going to win, how many votes (%), do you think the winner will tear?)
• On average, how many destinations (countries) has an average 22 year old University student been to?

Hi Team Foreasia,

Thank you for letting us know about your project. It is always great
to hear about more people testing prediction markets.

I am sure you will receive many more suggestions and offers of help
than a few obvious quick comments from me below.

Perhaps consider listing markets relevant to digital media as well as
established markets. Digital media markets should be interesting to
your community and facilitate even greater participation.

Perhaps something related to the audience that SingTel get for its S
$14.5 million investment to secure the naming rights for the Singapore
F1 race (e.g. will the attendance be over 120,000 at the race or over
600 million TV viewers)

Or will Singapore’s A.G. get contempt of court proceedings against the
Wall Street Journal for impugning the impartiality, integrity and
independence of the Singapore Judiciary?

More generally will Kim Jong Ill be seen in public by your project end
date?

Please keep us informed of your progress.

If we can help at all in any further way please let us know.

Best regards,

John Delaney

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From: Chris Masse <cfm@midasoracle.com>
Date: Mon, Sep 15, 2008 at 11:49 PM
Subject: Singapore University
To: foreasia@gmail.com


Hi folks,

Happy to meet you.

---
Hi Chris,

As we are a group of Singapore University students, currently in a Digital Media project to assess the benefits on prediction market, we hope to gain more insight into coming up with relevant topics and questions.

The benefits is that:
- PMs aggregate known knowledge into a probability expressed in percentage;
- This is the best forecast possible, but it is not omniscient.

It will be great to have more tips on formulating strategic and well-defined questions which will secure high participation rate and integrate market into decision-making processes.

Two things to consider:
- you need prediction markets where traders can feed on many open primary indicators, which they can survey on a daily basis.
- you need a complicated enough question so that the PMs add value as to regard to the primary indicators.

Our focus is on topics in Asia and the region. In addition, we have to start our 1-month simulation on 1st October. It would be preferred if one out of the 3 topics is related to our course - Digital Media or communication. Will it be better to choose a past-event, a future event?

- a future event

And how do we know if we can secure high participation rate - do we conduct a survey before the simulation?

- The best would be to have prizes.

Which company do you suggest we use for our prediction market simulation - Inkling Market, NewsFuture or?

- HubDub and Inkling Markets do support DIY prediction markets. They both use MSR.

Soon,

Best regards,

Chris. F. Masse

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