_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Q4: How do you perceive Mac users as opposed to PC users? Never published
Options: 1. Superior - better than others 2. Less modest 3. More open-minded 4. More creative 5. More emotionally unstable 6. Other
Q4 Result
This question was rejected for the following reason, "Unfortunately we can't publish your mac market because it's an opinion question with no verifiable outcome. Any question you ask has to have an objective verifiable answer so it can be liquidated at the end and the correct answer paid out at 100 and incorrect ones at 0." - Adam

Q5: Who is the top culprit of this financial crisis? Never published
Options: 1. Alan Greenspan 2. James Cayne 3. Joe Cassano 4. Richard Fuld 5. Christopher Cox 6. The American Consumer 7. Ian McCarthy
Q5 Result
Rejected. Reason: "Your markets about the "top culprit" and the market on the Asian markets can't be published unfortunately - you need to be able to prove the answers to these markets; unfortunately something like a "top culprit" can never be proven objectively. If you can reword these questions somehow so they can be proven at the end of the time period, we can make them available."

Q6 (Private, only for Comm 215) How many countries has the average student in this class been to?
Published?

Q6 Result

Key Takeaways:

Phrasing the Question

Clarity
Confusion over wording between "electorate" and "electoral" led to people bidding on the popular vote instead of the electoral college vote.

- To avoid mistakes/confusions like this, don’t assume others define/understand words the same as you – be explicit and use simple language.
- Take advantage of ability to provide stock information and use Market News Feed to provide as many updates as possible to allow for possible questions to arise and clarifications to take place
- Use the comments section to communicate with traders if necessary
- Answers must be mutually exclusive and encompass all possibilities to the necessary level of precision
- Use option to provide “detailed description”

Intrigue
-Questions must be intriguing and interesting upon first skimming in order to get traders to notice and choose to bid.


Identifiable and Definitive Outcome
-At least in terms of Inkling's public markets, all questions must have a concrete and provable outcome in order to adequately determine which answer is the correct outcome. This restricts types of questions and potential applications of PMs.

Inkling's Other Limitations
-Inkling limits the number of characters per question and per answer choice.

Time Period
-Markets must have adequate time to run in order to include maximum number of participants and thus maximum amount and breadth of information to enter into the market's movements.

What have gone wrong? - It was quite difficult to get people involved in choosing the questions for the prediction markets. We hoped our class to co-operate more with us and maybe see an opportunity to contribute to their own project, but none of the groups asked us to post any specific questions.


When interpreted as electoral college:
Pundits' Predictions

Notable Predictions:
Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC's "Morning Joe" - Obama, 290 electorate votes (53.9%)
Lanny Davis, former White House special counsel to President Clinton - Obama, 350 electorate votes (65.1%)
Armstrong Williams, conservative commentator - Obama, 325 electorate votes (60.4%)
Brent Budowsky, a former aide to Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas) - Obama, 300 electorate votes (55.8%)
Simon Rosenberg, head of NDN, which is a progressive think tank and advocacy organization - Obama, 353 electorate votes (65.6%)
Karl Rove - Obama 338 electorate votes (62.8%)

Karl Rove's Predicted Electorate Map (to be compared to actual map):


VS.

Actual results: